NBA Finals Preview: Pacers @ Thunder

The Indiana Pacers have run the table to make the NBA Finals. They will meet a hungry Oklahoma City Thunder team, led by the MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA). 

*Stats Are As of 6/5/25

G1 - (4) Pacers (50-32) @ (1) Thunder (68-14) - 8:30 PM ET ABC

The Indiana Pacers have already taken down the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. Can they do the same to the best in the West? The Pacers beat the Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games in the 1st round of the playoffs, winning Game 5 by 1 in overtime. They then shocked the Cavs by taking the 1st two games in Cleveland, and ultimately won the series in 5 games. Then, they went to New York for the Eastern Conference Finals. The Pacers again took the 1st two games of the series in New York, and bested the Knicks in 6 games. Pascal Siakam was named the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Siakam has averaged 21.1 points per game and had 31 points in the Game 6 win against New York. However, Tyrese Haliburton has been the most impactful player on this team. Haliburton has recorded a double-double in four games in the series against New York. In the two games he didn’t record one, the Pacers lost. During this postseason, the Pacers are 8-1 in games where Haliburton achieved a double-double. I believe that he will lean on his passing abilities this series, netting him lots of assists. 

The Thunder enter this series after breezing through the Western Conference Playoffs. The Thunder had an NBA best 68 win season, earning them the number one seed in the west. They took care of business against the Memphis Grizzlies and Ja Morant, sweeping them 4-0. Their only real challenge was their series against the Nuggets. Denver was able to win Games 1 and 3 to take a 2-1 lead in the series. However, the Thunder battled back and won the series in 7 games, 4-3. Then, they took on Anthony “Ant” Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Despite a lot of people picking Thunder to lose to Minnesota, they were able to win the series 4-1, and prepare to face Indiana. The Thunder are known as a very strong defensive squad. Alex Caruso is widely regarded as one of the best on-ball defenders with very good awareness around the perimeter. The Thunder have 5 players who have over 1 steal in this postseason and have been known to run a very tight full court press under Mike Daigneault. The Thunder have 23.8 PPG off turnovers this postseason, which is just behind the 2007 Golden State Warriors who hold the all-time record at 24.1. OKC also has 380 total points off turnovers in the playoffs. That is just 83 points shy of the all-time record, which is held by the 2008 Boston Celtics. 

I believe that this series will be a lot more competitive than most people believe. A lot of people have said “OKC in 4”, but I believe that the Pacers will take Game 1 in OKC to prove that they are legit. I believe that the Thunders have the best roster in the NBA. However, I don’t believe they are the best team. The Pacers are a very bad matchup for Indiana, as all of their strengths are neutralized. While the Thunder have a very elite defense, Indiana’s fast-moving, high paced offense is exactly what a team needs to mess up the Thunder’s routine. Also, OKC’s offense is mainly run through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will have a tall task. SGA has averaged over 30 points in the regular season, but I expect the Pacers to challenge him and make him pass the ball. I feel that Aaron Nesmith could be on SGA for most of the contest. He has great on-ball coverage and should be able to force SGA to chuck up an off-balanced shot or pass the ball and make someone else score. 

Game 1 Score Prediction:

Pacers 105 Thunder 99

Series Prediction:

Pacers 4 Thunder 2